NDF Research has initiated coverage on Actinogen, which is in Phase 2 with a new agent for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease called Xanamem.
20 years ago, a diagnosis of cancer was often considered a death sentence; today the majority of patients survive for more than five years through significant advances in diagnosis and treatment. 25 years ago, the first treatment for Alzheimer’s disease was brought to market; yet today the prognosis for Alzheimer’s disease has changed very little. The few drugs that are available provide only marginal benefit and the need for new effective therapies has never been more urgent. In the US alone, there are over 5 million Alzheimer’s sufferers, and in Australia, it’s the leading cause of death for women and second only to cardiovascular disease for men. These current grim statistics are due in large part to the few approved treatments providing only symptomatic relief, and that there has not been a new FDA-approved Alzheimer’s treatment since 2003. Age is the biggest risk factor for Alzheimer’s and the aging population is resulting in more and more of our loved ones being diagnosed with the disease each year. The challenge is to develop new treatments that result in a shift in Alzheimer’s disease prognosis comparable to the substantial progress seen with cancer. The company that successfully brings a drug to market will have access to a global market in the tens of billions of dollars and the potential to create the next Alzheimer’s blockbuster.
Actinogen Medical aspires to be part of that shift. The company’s unique focus is on the development of Xanamem, a drug that targets cortisol (rather than amyloid plaques). This target has strong published scientific support indicating a promising chance of success. Actinogen’s Phase 2 trial of Xanamem, entitled XanADu, is expected to complete in 2019. On this basis, we value the company at 10 cents per share base case and 26 cents per share optimistic case. Our target price of 18 cents per share sits at the midpoint of our valuation range. We see Actinogen being re-rated by the progress of the XanADu trial, particularly with an interim analysis due in May/June 2018 prior to the full results in the second quarter of 2019.
You can download a copy of NDF Research's initiation report by clicking here or visiting ndfresearch.com. Note - the usual disclaimers apply - click here.